Brian McGough on X
Any way you slice it, $ULTA just talked down 2025. Looks like another flat year. But upping unit growth for '26 and beyond? Makes no sense. Berkshire bought this too early. We're still short.
X
Brian McGough
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
Brian McGough on X
This is what we said on $NKE earlier this year... 4. How Donahoe still has a job is a mystery. All the company has to do is say what we think is reality – that on (or BEFORE) April 2025 when Donahoe is required to step down (when he turns 65), that the company will bring back Mark Parker, Eric Sprunk or Elliott Hill to be CEO or interim CEO while the company reaccelerates the business model. Donahoe is a #fail, and his era of rule needs to come to an end – fast. As CEO of Nike, the man is incompetent. Yes, I (McGough) know that this statement will get me uninvited to the analyst meeting this fall. But I don't care. It needs to be said out loud.
Brian McGough on X
My team has the stones to tell me "the deck we prepared on $PLNT is the best work we've EVER done." I rarely hear that degree of confidence from anyone. You be the judge...presentation TOMORROW, 8/16. Deets below. https://t.co/u5qz3Xcdl4
Brian McGough on X
The work we're doing on $PLNT is next-level -- similar to what we did on $FND, but with a VERY different conclusion. Analyzing each store from a property developers perspective... Black Book on Friday... https://t.co/XKWvJdeWyH
Brian McGough on X
Is anybody looking at $REAL NOLs? I bet $EBAY is. EBAY has failed in luxury authentication. It NEEDS REAL. They could use $2/share in realized NOLs with the stock trading at $3. Maybe they buy this when it's a $10 stock, but at $3 it's a slam dunk.
Brian McGough on X
$REAL CEO gets an A+ for executing on the model. But a D- for communicating on last night's call. The reality is that supply growth -- THE KEY to GMV/Cash Flow -- is ACCELERATING. Stock getting tagged today in a Quad4 tape on a sloppy guide. But this story 100% on track.
Brian McGough on X
Our call has been to be Short Retail, and Long 'boring' retailers -- things like $BBWI, $GIL, $VVV, $DRVN. Revenue inflecting positive on all three, stocks should grind higher through 2H, while the rest of retail melts down. https://t.co/4HTXOpOsaz
Brian McGough on X
Best Idea Short $FND should literally be down 20% on this print alone. Across the board guide-down and cutting unit growth AGAIN. Winners don't cut unit growth when times are tough, they LEAN-IN and accelerate investment. But in FND's case it's about cash preservation. Bulls are having major thesis drift here.
Brian McGough on X
Nice blowup today on Best Idea Short $ONEW. But this name should literally be down 40%+ on these horrible numbers. Stock has been a nice 50% gain short side. But Crime Dog wants more...
Brian McGough on X
And in other news, John Donahoe got paid $29MILLION for all that value he created last year as CEO of $NKE.
Brian McGough on X
Only ONE Firm has a 'Short' on $HELE today... Those $140 price targets are going to have to come down by well over $100...Just sayin... https://t.co/PAUJtlnhCv
Brian McGough on X
Congratulations to $HELE management for executing the worst timed stock repo I've ever seen. Buying $100mm in the quarter just shows how little they know about what's actually going on with their business. @HedgeyeRetailJM is this a ZERO?
Brian McGough on X
$HELE elevated on Short list last month, and delivered a killer Black Book outlining why you want to short the name everyone thinks is so damn cheap (which it's not) last week. Stock could still be cut in half from here -- even on a big down move today. https://t.co/YN5Hrtfu8q
Brian McGough on X
Thanks to Spruce Point for making our $FND Short Call! The work we've done on this name is the best work we've done -- on ANY name -- EVER. @HedgeyeRetailJM @hedgeyeretailrw
Brian McGough on X
Seriously considering getting a Swoosh tattoo on my forehead (ok, maybe on my calf like PHK) -- with a $75 after it -- after today's shellacking -- to remember forever (and to remind me when this stock is at $150). $NKE
Brian McGough on X
$NKE SHOULD be getting tagged. So should $ONON and $DECK as Nike Futures are up so materially in the specialty running channel. But what the market is getting WRONG is taking $FL lower. FL is Nike's meal ticket to reaccelerating top line. It's a massive long here. It's a 2-3-bagger from here.
Brian McGough on X
Donohoe talking about the WNBA. That's kind of what he is, the WNBA of CEOs. $NKE
Brian McGough on X
How the Nike $NKE board does not fire Donahoe is a complete mystery to me. The guy's gone in April 2025 anyway when his contract is up. But end it already. Bring back Mark Parker, Eric Sprunk, or Elliott Hill. Shit, bring back ALL of them! Any of those guys will make this a $120 stock on a simple press release.
Brian McGough on X
$NKE beat, but company 'revising' FY25 guide. And giving no detail on that until the call at 5pm. People are pinging me assuming a $3 EPS number. Just making stuff up. I'll go on record in saying that NKE will end up earnings better than where the consensus started in the first place. NKE internal forecast accuracy is horrendous.
Brian McGough on X
I have yet to come in contact with anyone who says anything other than '$NKE is gonna puke the quarter and guide down." The volatility after this Nike print skews to the upside. The 12-month risk reward is money with this stock under $100.
Brian McGough on X
Hey Gary $RH...And I know you're reading this, bc your ego is too big NOT to care about what people on X think...don't get on this call and complain about the Fed. The Fed isn't the problem. You're 40% price increase over 4 years is the problem. Fix it. Get your prices sharp, and get demand rolling forward.
Brian McGough on X
Haha! If $LULU was smart it would shut down its footwear business. It has no business being there! Several more guide downs to come here… https://t.co/1lhthueM2j
Brian McGough on X
How anyone could actually RAISE a price target after this $LULU print is a complete mystery to me. Thanks for showing up #OldWall. I won't touch this stock long side until it starts with a 1. Presentation detailing why at 12:30ET today. #ShortLULU
Brian McGough on X
Better print from $LULU than expected. But the rate of change in comps globally was terrible. Margins sequentially decelerated. Black Book presentation TOMORROW at 12:30pm ET where @HedgeyeRetailRW and I will bring the heat -- diving into LULU's cycles, and key profit centers. Ultimately, will drill down on whether you want to buy here, or press the short and will give the analytical framework as to why.
