We Dramatically Improved our Machine Learning Model to Price Kalshi Earnings Contracts. It Went 11/13.
A two-layer machine-learning model correctly called 11 of 13 CrowdStrike earnings-word contracts on Kalshi, using historical transcripts…
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Every article we have published, filed by the company it is actually about.
1914 articles about companies over $300M
A two-layer machine-learning model correctly called 11 of 13 CrowdStrike earnings-word contracts on Kalshi, using historical transcripts…
Hallador’s 1 GW Merom plant could supply a proposed 1,000-acre Sullivan County data center, with local filings and Stantec references tying…
Theravance Biopharma began a strategic review after a failed Phase 3 trial.
Green Dot’s breakup offers $8.11 cash plus 0.2215 BankCo shares, while GDOT’s $11.50 price implies a 0.55x tangible-book valuation for the…
$OTCM beast of a quarter https://t.co/6h385yzu4x
The Voss Q4 2025 Letter to Partners is up. Updates on $PAR, $FLYW, $CLBT, and new core idea $CHH, an asset light hotel franchisor that has rarely ever been cheaper. https://t.co/DTOoXGIN0M https://t.co/gjWBSHET4j
Voss Capital Issues Open Letter to the Board of PAR Technology $PAR https://t.co/rxKYFAfK5C
Voss Capital Issues Open Letter to the Board of Euronet Worldwide $EEFT https://t.co/ZpE7cH201Q
I recently sat down with @StockJabber at @IdeaBrunchEmail to discuss the strategy behind Multiples Capital's outperformance in 2025. The full interview is behind a paywall, but here are 4 core themes we discussed: 1/ The Multi-Asset Edge While many leaned on the "Magnificent 7," we found alpha in global de-dollarization and the massive electricity demands of AI data centers. This approach delivered a 3.15 Sharpe Ratio—with roughly half the turbulence of the S&P 500. 2/ Garrett Motion ($GTX) Update Since my last feature, $GTX has surged ~170%. We discussed the "perfect storm" of index inclusion and aggressive capital allocation that drove this run, and why the "EV-only" fear proved to be premature. 3/ AI Disruption vs. Mispricing The market is correctly identifying "AI Losers" in SaaS, but it’s applying that same anxiety with broad stroke. We broke down why Expedia ($EXPE) is a prime example of this mispricing, trading at a 12%+ FCF yield despite its essential role in the global travel ecosystem and it's growing B2B setment. 4/ My Favorite "Tokenization" Play We closed with a deep dive into the digitalization of finance. I shared my top idea for playing the tokenization trend, a company currently acting as the "digital infrastructure provider" for institutions and growing it's subscription and service revenues. Read the full deep dive here: https://t.co/kuRyJtSPMh Note: As this is premium content, I cannot share the PDF on a open platform. However, if you’d like to join my quarterly investor letter distribution list to see how we are positioning for the "Broadening Trade" in 2026, please send a DM.
Insider buys usually feel like PR fluff. But $45M into $KKR at these levels is clearly an investment, not signaling. Especially meaningful coming from guys whose entire schtick is figuring out what things are worth... https://t.co/w5KSbF0VMj
Seaport Entertainment sold 250 Water St for $142 million and leased the loss-making Tin Building, while TerraVest’s Q1 cash EBIT margin…
Alpha Metallurgical Resources has retired more than 30% of its shares since 2022; higher structural metallurgical-coal costs could support…
Kaspi.kz’s 850 KZT ADS dividend establishes a roughly 9% yield after Hepsiburada spending; Japanese buyback disclosures test whether 0.61x…
AerCap sells aircraft at 2x book value and repurchases stock near 1x book, cutting shares outstanding 31% in three years.
APi Group hit its 13/60/80 targets in 2025, reporting $7.9 billion revenue, 13.2% EBITDA margin and 80% free-cash-flow conversion, then set…
Well, looks like $RKT vacuumed up the entire industry's refi volumes. Not only PennyMac. And 30 yr fixed just hit the lowest in 3.5 years this week. https://t.co/fqJ4bNkmiF
Docebo and Yext odd-lot tenders prioritize holders under 100 shares; DCBO offers $20.40 per share, though Canadian deemed-dividend…
Happy to share our Q4 2025 letter. Especially at a time when the future of internet and software business models are being questioned. In it, we offer our take on: - The "AI Scare Trade". The market is pricing in fear, not facts. These businesses aren't broken (yet), but investors are selling indiscriminately. - What's still investable? Software faces real headwinds - disruption to terminal value assumptions and forced pricing model shifts. But ~80% of a software company's value is trust, reliability, and headache-free solutions. That doesn't disappear overnight. - Network effects are real moats. Gaming, ecommerce, consumer internet - they're all down substantially from highs. But as AI reduces barriers to entry, the barriers to scale go up. Distribution grows more valuable. - Thoughts on $SE, after a -45% drawdown. We don't think the TikTok boogeyman is as scary as the market fears. In fact, the opposite. - New Oriental $EDU exit. Originally bought near net cash, and business has stabilized since. Time to move on. Full letter linked here: https://t.co/0WPoxoHt7t
Domino’s Q4 2025 Kalshi contract prices “craveable” at 37%, while First Strike’s transcript model assigns 68.4% before social-sentiment…
Copart’s fiscal Q2 2026 revenue fell 4% and U.S. insurance units dropped 11%, as underinsured drivers and carrier volumes weighed while IAA…
Ategrity Specialty’s 30% premium growth, stable reserves and $50 million buyback target an undervalued, thinly traded specialty insurer.
$FIX just a casual 24-bagger in the last five years
Key Take-Aways from @ballmatthew 's State of Video Games Report: 1. In-App Advertising 2x'd in last 5 years $APP 2. Mobile in-app ads is almost as big as PC & Console Spend combined 😲 3. 65% of mobile games revenue comes from mid & low end smartphone users $SE 4. "Rest of World" (SE Asia, Latam, etc) accounted for all of the growth since 2021.
Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…