Why Nike ($NKE) Won't Make It Into the Bearhold Universe
Nike is excluded from Bearhold’s universe because cultural relevance and consumer taste drive demand, leaving its revenue model less…
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Under the Hood, Copart ($CPRT)
Copart’s salvage-auction network pairs scarce storage land with global online bidding, supporting insurer returns and a durable moat…
AXT’s Tongmei Problem: Great Asset, Fragile Economics
AXT’s 85.5%-owned Tongmei depends on offshore pricing, export approvals and transfer-pricing economics despite AI-optics demand.
Charles Frischer on X
@MLedrappier @CalgaryLeveen No doubt a sale of Globalstar to Amazon or SpaceX would be great news for $NN. Especially at the valuations being cited. I am long a small position in $GSAT. This would be an incredible day for NN. Validates spectrum valuations
It Pays to be a Winner: Our ML model and social research layer just went 14-for-16 on Nike’s Q3 call. (Kalshi, Mentions)
First Strike Research’s ML and social-sentiment system correctly called 14 of 16 Nike Q3 Kalshi contracts, reporting 208¢ net P&L.
Charles Frischer on X
@Nishtu Excellent point. I should have added this objection as another item which spooked investors. Overall, $NN has seen solid bipartisan report due to the strong need for alternative GPS. This is a national concern and non-partisan issue to most. People understand this is important.
Nike Earnings Mentions Contracts: Our Analysis, and Fair Value Pricing Model.
First Strike prices Nike’s Q3 “Express Lane” mention at 20-25¢ versus Kalshi’s 66¢, citing the retired Mark Parker-era supply-chain program…
Water and Power: The Dual Engines Driving LandBridge’s Explosive Growth
LandBridge outlined $300 million in pore-space free cash flow within five years; its Permian data-center project remains proof of concept.
Single Stock Spotlight #5: Core Natural Resources (CNR)
Core Natural Resources (CNR) trades at 6 times normalized free cash flow, with export thermal coal exposure positioned for LNG disruption…
Doubling Down on Iran and OXY
Occidental Petroleum is positioned for oil above $80, with a prolonged Iran conflict and Gulf supply shut-ins pushing prices into triple…
TIC Solutions: Thesis Check
TIC Solutions' NV5 merger lifted consulting and geospatial growth and margins, while its 52%-of-revenue inspection unit stayed flat after…
Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube
Shift4 Payments earns 50 to 60 basis points on SkyTab volume while acquiring merchant networks, driving 39% annual GRLNF growth since 2021…
Single Stock Spotlight #4: Global Payments (GPN)
Global Payments trades below 6 times adjusted earnings and about 7 times free cash flow amid Worldpay, competition and debt concerns.
We Dramatically Improved our Machine Learning Model to Price Kalshi Earnings Contracts. It Went 11/13.
A two-layer machine-learning model correctly called 11 of 13 CrowdStrike earnings-word contracts on Kalshi, using historical transcripts…
Voss Capital on X
The Voss Q4 2025 Letter to Partners is up. Updates on $PAR, $FLYW, $CLBT, and new core idea $CHH, an asset light hotel franchisor that has rarely ever been cheaper. https://t.co/DTOoXGIN0M https://t.co/gjWBSHET4j
Voss Capital on X
Voss Capital Issues Open Letter to the Board of Euronet Worldwide $EEFT https://t.co/ZpE7cH201Q
Multiples Capital on X
I recently sat down with @StockJabber at @IdeaBrunchEmail to discuss the strategy behind Multiples Capital's outperformance in 2025. The full interview is behind a paywall, but here are 4 core themes we discussed: 1/ The Multi-Asset Edge While many leaned on the "Magnificent 7," we found alpha in global de-dollarization and the massive electricity demands of AI data centers. This approach delivered a 3.15 Sharpe Ratio—with roughly half the turbulence of the S&P 500. 2/ Garrett Motion ($GTX) Update Since my last feature, $GTX has surged ~170%. We discussed the "perfect storm" of index inclusion and aggressive capital allocation that drove this run, and why the "EV-only" fear proved to be premature. 3/ AI Disruption vs. Mispricing The market is correctly identifying "AI Losers" in SaaS, but it’s applying that same anxiety with broad stroke. We broke down why Expedia ($EXPE) is a prime example of this mispricing, trading at a 12%+ FCF yield despite its essential role in the global travel ecosystem and it's growing B2B setment. 4/ My Favorite "Tokenization" Play We closed with a deep dive into the digitalization of finance. I shared my top idea for playing the tokenization trend, a company currently acting as the "digital infrastructure provider" for institutions and growing it's subscription and service revenues. Read the full deep dive here: https://t.co/kuRyJtSPMh Note: As this is premium content, I cannot share the PDF on a open platform. However, if you’d like to join my quarterly investor letter distribution list to see how we are positioning for the "Broadening Trade" in 2026, please send a DM.
Yaron Naymark on X
Insider buys usually feel like PR fluff. But $45M into $KKR at these levels is clearly an investment, not signaling. Especially meaningful coming from guys whose entire schtick is figuring out what things are worth... https://t.co/w5KSbF0VMj
Single Stock Spotlight #3: Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources has retired more than 30% of its shares since 2022; higher structural metallurgical-coal costs could support…
Kazakhstan, Japan, and Trimming a Winner
Kaspi.kz’s 850 KZT ADS dividend establishes a roughly 9% yield after Hepsiburada spending; Japanese buyback disclosures test whether 0.61x…
Is the Airline Industry Really That Bad? – AerCap and A Case of Sandbagged Guidance
AerCap sells aircraft at 2x book value and repurchases stock near 1x book, cutting shares outstanding 31% in three years.
APi Group: How the story has evolved and what's next
APi Group hit its 13/60/80 targets in 2025, reporting $7.9 billion revenue, 13.2% EBITDA margin and 80% free-cash-flow conversion, then set…
Fred Liu on X
Well, looks like $RKT vacuumed up the entire industry's refi volumes. Not only PennyMac. And 30 yr fixed just hit the lowest in 3.5 years this week. https://t.co/fqJ4bNkmiF
Fred Liu on X
Happy to share our Q4 2025 letter. Especially at a time when the future of internet and software business models are being questioned. In it, we offer our take on: - The "AI Scare Trade". The market is pricing in fear, not facts. These businesses aren't broken (yet), but investors are selling indiscriminately. - What's still investable? Software faces real headwinds - disruption to terminal value assumptions and forced pricing model shifts. But ~80% of a software company's value is trust, reliability, and headache-free solutions. That doesn't disappear overnight. - Network effects are real moats. Gaming, ecommerce, consumer internet - they're all down substantially from highs. But as AI reduces barriers to entry, the barriers to scale go up. Distribution grows more valuable. - Thoughts on $SE, after a -45% drawdown. We don't think the TikTok boogeyman is as scary as the market fears. In fact, the opposite. - New Oriental $EDU exit. Originally bought near net cash, and business has stabilized since. Time to move on. Full letter linked here: https://t.co/0WPoxoHt7t
