NYSE
ESMT
3 stories
Delisted Jul 31
It’s mainly thesis tracking mode now since I layed out most of my ideas H1 from $INTC, $ARM to $MU. Or $SIVE to $AAOI or $AXTI or $NBIS Only two recent ones were $ESMT for legacy memory trade and $CCXI for humanoids but aside from that it’s just seeing if they get validated over time Stuff like large body substrates or CXL or MLCC with newer discovery, I’ve already published earlier on
I feel like traditional "value investing" went into hibernation. Before it was finding a 10x -12x P/E company like $UPWK or $PYPL, Dominoes, Pepsi. Or even a cheap Japanese company below book value. Then just enjoying slow growth but buyback/dividend appreciation from their cashflow. Now you can find 1.8x runrate P/E company like $ESMT that grew revenue 605.24% Y/Y. And the main thing you need to argue about is duration. Or a 16.2x trailing P/E Sumitomo, despite having way too many hyperscaler LTAs in AI from fiber to lasers. AI created much bigger medium-term anomaly, where "value investing" went towards high growth, "deep value" companies.
$SIVE and $AAOI, yes for a 2027 timeframe. That's the nuance. Sivers you're coming on with 100M CW DFB laser capacity + 2 external foundries (maybe 300M in total), and all my supply chains mapping maps to larger hyperscaler suppliers. AAOI you're coming on with $471m transceiver revenue + 400K ELS units for 2028 timeframe. With hyperscalers + demand eating up all their capacity. There's just a $600m ATM which presents overhang near term. $NBIS already got re-rated but it's very positive upcoming for Q4 2026 (esp. with price hikes). Legacy memory like $ESMT + (some I haven't named yet) + regular memory names like Samsung, I do think will strongly outperform near term. And obviously CPUs names like $INTC $AMD $ARM as of recent.
Companies the stories above are also about, besides ESMT.
