Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
ICBC’s chairman describes embedding Chinese Communist Party leadership, anti-corruption campaigns and Xi Jinping Thought into governance at…
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catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
An Announcement, A Visit, A Stock Pitch
Cementos Argos trades below the value of its 54.7 million Summit Materials shares, with asset sales and strategic holdings providing…
The Strategic Value of eDreams
EDreams’ Prime travel subscription model makes the €3.6 billion European OTA a potential Uber, Airbnb or Amazon acquisition target.
One More for the Offshore Basket: An Orphaned Microcap Driller
Offshore drillers have fallen 25-30% despite floater dayrates above $500,000 and utilization in the high-80% to low-90% range.
AI Radiology Company Transitioning to Cloud w/ Multibagger Potential ($ICAD)
ICAD’s cloud-subscription shift could add more than $30 million of ARR to AI mammography software with 85%+ margins, while its net cash…
Thinking aloud about Google remedies
Justice Department remedies could bar Google from using location data it cannot share, weakening targeted ads and traffic routing despite…
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT New $50M display upgrade award for the Miami Heat arena. Will be a nice boost to current quarter earnings (FQ2'25). https://t.co/sLAFBEerYi
AngelAlign - Chinese clear aligners (6699 HK)
AngelAlign holds 3% of global clear aligners and sells about HK$10,000 below Invisalign in Hong Kong, alongside speculation that MBK could…
Peakstone Realty Trust - PKST
Peakstone Realty Trust owns 16.6 million square feet of industrial and office property, trading below half estimated asset value with a…
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
Actionable Ideas Update - 08/20/2024
Cipher Pharmaceuticals’ $89.5 million Natroba acquisition doubles EBITDA to about $24 million and adds U.S.
ALTO- ALTO ingredients
ALTO Ingredients trades near half of book value after plant upgrades and lower corn prices set up a recovery in crush margins and cash flow.
Cronos Group Update: A multi-bagger in the making?
Cronos Group's Q2 net revenue rose 46% to $27.8 million as Canadian cannabis volumes and market share grew, while its cash balance remained…
Notes and Updates
ECIP recipient banks could repurchase Treasury preferred shares at steep discounts, potentially lifting book value, while Hawaiian Electric…
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
Revisiting An Old Idea
Instil Bio leased its 128,000-square-foot Tarzana life-sciences building to AstraZeneca for 15 years at $7.52 million annual rent,…
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW USDA crackdown on Mexican avocado corruption significantly erroding import vols (region where $CVGW sources all product). S. America taking share at accelerating rate as customers (ie. $CMG, grocers) shift suppliers. $CVGW sales vol -13% MRQ. Current Q could be a disaster. https://t.co/KJgK8fXbM4
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
Inflecting Drone Company w/ Near-Term (+300% vs. -30%) Binary Event ($RCAT)
Red Cat’s Teal Drones is one of two remaining candidates for a $600 million to $1 billion-plus U.S.
