Timyan Bank Alert on X
Fresh $CFFN 13d by @HoldCoAM https://t.co/ecXNkAUTeX
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Timyan Bank Alert on X
@JustBankStocks @StocksOddball Even happier 39 month and two week $FSEA anniversary. Congrats to you!
Timyan Bank Alert on X
@thebankzhar @SteveChuck5 There are many candidates for $BANR to pursue next. $CSHX $CWBC $OVLY $PVBK $SFBC the list is endless. https://t.co/ssMeFndZzi
Timyan Bank Alert on X
In Play Today: UMB Financial $UMBF reiterates future M&A requirements; Blue Owl rejects buyout offer | S&P Global Market Intelligence https://t.co/qDTqHhJTSr
April Earnings Update
Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…
AAON · long Aaon INC (aaon)
AAON is presented as a long investment idea, revisiting a company written up as a short nearly a decade ago.
RSI · long Rush Street Interactive INC
Rush Street Interactive (RSI) is presented as a long investment idea.
ToffCap on X
Let's not forget this is the CEO that actually wrote "our share price is candidly, and please pardon my language, way too f-cking low." Global Net Lease to Acquire Modiv Industrial in $535 Million Transaction $MDV $GNL
ToffCap on X
Sharing some pain. In 2024 I went and visited Nebius $NBIS. My first question: "pls explain me what you do". My last question: "pls summarise again what you do". I ofc never bought. https://t.co/5VeLFwFkEm
Adobe Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)
Adobe trades at 11x earnings despite $24.5 billion of revenue, 37% operating margins and 12% profit growth; a former data-science head…
PayPal tries again (and again)
Stripe’s startup-focused product sprawl contrasts with Adyen’s enterprise restraint; despite 20% more payment volume and faster growth,…
SYK · long Stryker CORP
Stryker (SYK) trades near a 52-week low after a late-Q1 cyberattack disrupted revenue and earnings, framing a long-term compounder…
CUE · short Cue Biopharma
Cue Biopharma faces a deteriorating balance sheet, recurring operating losses, ATM dilution and PIPE-investor selling pressure.
Weekend Digest #343: Berkshire, Atlassian, Roblox
Berkshire Hathaway’s dot-com-era performance frames AI-boom comparisons, Atlassian beats earnings, and Roblox shares fall.
MHEYF · long Maha Capital
Maha Capital combines two assets valued at least 2x its pro forma market capitalization, with a catalyst intended to close the discount.
SLGN · long Silgan
Silgan’s long thesis rests on roughly 10% historical EPS growth and a potential rerating as its end-market exposure evolves.
PPTA · long Perpetua Resources CORP
Perpetua Resources (PPTA) is a development-stage gold mining project.
BBWI · long Bath and Body Works
Bath & Body Works is the remaining Les Wexner retail business after The Limited’s former brands were separated or sold.
CBT · short Cabot CORP
Cabot’s short case targets a market pricing FY26 EPS of $6.00–$6.50 as trough earnings and assigning value to its battery-materials…
AMPX · short Amprius Technologies, Inc.
Amprius Technologies derives 94% of revenue from licensing despite its silicon-anode battery supplier narrative for defense and aerospace…
Floor & Decor: 1Q26 Business Update
Floor & Decor cut 2026 guidance after 1Q same-store sales fell 3.7%, while shrinking new-store formats, cutting comparable-store SG&A and…
marginofdanger on X
I pasted two screenshots from $PS's 424B4. If you look at fee paying AUM, it's $16 bn excl HHH which has a de minimis mgmt fee/carry. Add in $PSUS and you are at $21 bn of fee paying AUM. $PS discloses pro forma mgmt fees of $238 mm but that is net of $91 mm of non-cash amort related to the IPO. So I'm going to give them credit for $329 mm of mgmt fees. Assuming a 65% operating margin and a 20% tax rate, that gives me effective fee paying earnings of $171 mm. $PSH.LN has a 16% incentive fee and $PS is entitled to the performance fees on the first 5% (the team gets beyond that). On $15 bn, this is $15 bn * 5% * 16% = $120 mm or $96 mm after tax. Add up the mgmt fee and performance fee share, and I get $267 mm of expected earnings or $0.67/share. Implies $PS is trading at around ~50x EPS vs. $KKR at 17x, $ARES at 20x, $BX at 21x. Of course you can layer in some minor $HHH economics and it takes down the multiple a couple of turns. But you could also layer in a few years of sub 5% returns and that takes away the performance fee too. Certainly a 50x EPS valuation is pretty common for a fast growing higher ROIC biz. But it's by no means cheap. The question is, how will Ackman raise any money from here? $PSH.LN is at a discount to NAV, $PSUS is at a discount to NAV and $HHH is at a discount to NAV. One thing that will allow $PS to grow into its valuation is great results as that will 1) scale up the earnings (as it's based on % of AUM) and 2) facilitate new investors. Another way to contextualize the valuation is to simply look at fee paying AUM of $21 bn and compare that to the equity value of $13 bn. That is pretty unprecedented in the land of asset managers but reflects in part the permanent capital and the limited float (I think its just the 20mm shares given in the IPO). Could easily see a lot of price pressure once the 380mm non-IPO related investors are free to sell.
Laughing Water Capital on X
@JoesAutopen yes - it is on Carr. The same Carr who has surely seen the real world testing that $NN has done, and still submitted a draft NPRM. Is it your belief that the real world data was negative, and Carr chose to purposefully put his head on the chopping block?
Quick Value #313 - Magnum Ice Cream (MICC)
Magnum Ice Cream (MICC), spun off from Unilever, trades at 13x NTM earnings and 8x EBITDA as its 3 million-freezer fleet supports a 2-3…
