Mispriced Domino’s Mention Contract: Kalshi Traders Haven’t Ordered This Yet!
Domino’s Q4 2025 Kalshi contract prices “craveable” at 37%, while First Strike’s transcript model assigns 68.4% before social-sentiment…
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Domino’s Q4 2025 Kalshi contract prices “craveable” at 37%, while First Strike’s transcript model assigns 68.4% before social-sentiment…
Copart’s fiscal Q2 2026 revenue fell 4% and U.S. insurance units dropped 11%, as underinsured drivers and carrier volumes weighed while IAA…
$FIX just a casual 24-bagger in the last five years
Key Take-Aways from @ballmatthew 's State of Video Games Report: 1. In-App Advertising 2x'd in last 5 years $APP 2. Mobile in-app ads is almost as big as PC & Console Spend combined 😲 3. 65% of mobile games revenue comes from mid & low end smartphone users $SE 4. "Rest of World" (SE Asia, Latam, etc) accounted for all of the growth since 2021.
Shift4 built its payments business by acquiring gateway nodes and migrating merchants to its processing platform; revenue has compounded…
AppLovin - Interview with Xiaochuan (architect of $APP's Axon engine). Thought this was the most in-depth public conversation on AppLovin's business to date. (P.S. Youtube has great subtitle translation) Axon & Technical Philosophy - Axon was built by just 5 people in 3 months - AppLovin was the first to implement models with prediction windows exceeding 7 days - Deliberately avoids developing its own LLMs, preferring to use the best available models on the market — building LLMs in-house wouldn't generate the best ROI E-Commerce Expansion - Decision to enter e-commerce made in May 2024, with the product launching later that year; original team was only 10 people - Entering e-commerce was effectively building a new model from scratch - The gaming and e-commerce algorithms share nothing except infrastructure and accumulated organizational experience Core Competency & Culture - AppLovin's edge isn't industry-specific — it's rooted in how the company approaches problems (the culture itself), which he believes positions them to tackle challenges well beyond gaming and e-commerce - His relish for being called an "underdog" comes through clearly throughout the interview Social Media Ambitions - Already working on building a next-generation social media platform - Strategic logic: Meta started with captive organic traffic and built an ad platform on top; AppLovin is doing the reverse - starting with the ad platform and building toward organic traffic - Owning that organic traffic, if achieved, would be a significant advantage Short Seller Response - When the short reports were published, Xiaochuan personally reviewed the systems and code to assess whether the claims had merit Hiring Philosophy - After 2023, overhauled hiring: moved to paying among the highest salaries in Silicon Valley, and shifted focus away from seasoned veterans toward people with fewer than 2 years of experience - Core belief: experience is overrated, the capacity to learn is underrated; breakthroughs come from willingness to abandon convention - "You can't operate like a large company if you don't have a large company's resources" - Most prominent AI researchers are overpriced — high visibility and intense competition drives salaries beyond their marginal value - Targets talent at the "periphery of the spotlight": technically strong but undervalued by the market, and still carrying the underdog mentality that well-known names often lack (i.e. "Moneyball") - Entire engineering org runs on fewer than 100 people https://t.co/vXaWUZGkZt
Applovin wants to launch their own social media platform next. Discussed in this interview with Xiaochuan Ge, the architect of Axon (50min mark). $APP https://t.co/9xyf9ACvSt Probably not meaningful in short-term, and who knows if it works. But this is where their roadmap is at. Also already hiring: https://t.co/SYDyI5qQlV
$GPGI Stagnating credit card manufacturer (fka CompoSecure). Levered up 4x to acquire commodity plastic injection molding company Husky. Last month CEO departed, this week CEO and CFO of Husky left. Now rudderless with very ambitious guidance almost certain to get revised lower.
GCI Liberty, Alaska’s dominant telecom operator, trades at 10x free cash flow after its Liberty Broadband spinout and has roughly $2…
Duolingo is presented as an AI-resilient opportunity after SaaS stocks sold off on fears that coding tools will compress software moats,…
Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…
Airbnb’s fourth-quarter revenue rose 12% to $2.8 billion and GBV 16%, while product improvements and AI spending target booking conversion…
Adobe trades at 14x free cash flow after a 60% decline despite growth, with AI, its business-model transition and creative-software…
$ANDG. Resurrected Arthur Andersen of Enron fame. Provides small business valuation and tax services—being disintermediated by AI, highly competitive. Ironically reported a material weakness in internal controls. Aggressive growth and valuation. Multiple other red flags.
Nippon Carbon trades at 1x book with net cash and a 4.2% dividend while expanding aerospace materials through GE/Safran joint ventures.
@cfrischer1 validation of what $NN CFO Tim Gray said at Seaport a few weeks back: https://t.co/OT4MFWbPxQ
SNAP Family Center was omitted from Snap’s earnings call, validating a 50-cent Kalshi NO contract and informing a machine-learning model…
Ferrari sells about 13,000 vehicles annually, generating €7 billion of revenue and 28% operating margins; its shares trade at 32 times…
Seems like there's some interest. How much would you pay for an $APP dashboard updated 1x a week? Assuming the URL database grows over time? (AWS credits aren't cheap!)
It's Sunday morning, and here I am vibe-coding an Axon Pixel Tracker in EC2 with 0 coding abilities... Coming for you Yipit😆 $APP https://t.co/1Kyrhsll7h
FDA’s crackdown on HIMS’s $49 compounded oral Wegovy copy reshapes GLP-1 competition after Novo Nordisk forecast 2026 sales and profit…
On Applovin Ecommerce Ads $APP. (From Ecommerce Playbook podcast 3 weeks ago.) ** "So a couple things, number one: it turned out to be the third, the third largest investment out of all the channels that we, that we run for our clients over that period [Black Friday], which is wild. And that the new kid on the block popped up into the third spot... like bucked the trend. There’s no doubt in my mind that we’re going to see material, like orders of magnitude and investment into this channel for, for our clients in, in 2026 on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, the holiday. So my prediction, one last point on Black Friday: third largest investment channel, but still a relatively small portion of the whole for the weekend, a little less than 5%. So, but my prediction for this coming year in 2026 is that Applovin is going to be 15 percent, 20 percent of the total investment in Black Friday and Cyber Monday. And the indication, like the reason why, is because number one, we can deploy a lot of media dollars really fast because there’s so many impressions available, and number two, it’s performing. So the media dollars actually flowed into Applovin towards the end of that period, which is an incredible signal. So the AppLovin trend was peak, not peak on Friday, high levels on Friday, down a little bit on Monday, Tuesday, the peak was actually on Monday. I remember, you know, when this conversation first started with more than a year ago, October, right, 2024, the initial conversation was like what if this could be the third platform and some of our, as these sort of incrementality tests went through that sort of just seemed to be coming to fruition. And I would figure out like how am I going to make, if I was running an e-com brand, I would, I would say to myself, how am I going to, how am I going to make this 20% of my media investment this year? I was trying to explore in YouTube, my, my third bet would absolutely, absolutely be on AppLovin. I think what we’re saying here is like that’s happening basically is the Applovin ads is the third platform now. And so it’s time to get on." https://t.co/PBUOSe899T
Evolution's fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% as Asia cyber disruption and European channelization outweighed U.S.
Adobe’s sub-20x forward GAAP P/E reflects AI disruption fears, with the investment case hinging on whether Digital Media’s creative…