How We Made 233% Trading a Starbucks Condiment Bar
A Kalshi contract on whether Starbucks would mention “condiment bar” on its earnings call rose from 30 cents to $1 after the term went…
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921 articles about companies over $10B
Ryanair’s €256M Fine May Be Tip of The Iceberg
Ryanair’s €256 million Italian antitrust fine targets its OTA-blocking system, while internal documents raise questions about Michael…
LVMH: 4Q25 Business Recap
LVMH’s 2025 revenue fell 5% and operating profit 9% amid forex and luxury weakness, while Fashion & Leather Goods improved in the second…
Laughing Water Capital on X
Think signal value for $NN is very high here. Ajit Pai, Brendan Carr’s mentor at the FCC, is Pres and CEO of CTIA. Execs from $VZ and $T are chair and vice chair. Unlikely they put Mariam on the board unless $NN future is bright. 💯% Pai knows what is happening behind FCC doors. https://t.co/4Jtm3aiAf9
Lincoln Post: NFLX and Theaters, FCNCA Earnings
Netflix’s proposed Warner Bros. acquisition could preserve or expand theatrical releases, supporting cinema chains such as Cinemark and…
Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Condiment Bar
Kalshi’s 76% contract price for Starbucks saying “condiment bar” on its next earnings call exceeds a transcript-based estimate of 31.6%.
Porter Collins on X
@JeffreyCherkin Not a bad purchase of $FTAI this time last year < $90! @MelissaLeeCNBC
FTAI Power and QXO's next aquistion
FTAI Power plans to convert CFM56 jet engines into 25 MW gas turbines for data centers, targeting 100 annual units and $750 million to $1…
Coupang Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)
Coupang’s former strategy VP discusses Taiwan expansion, 1P-versus-3P economics, margins and competitive risks as CPNG trades 35% below its…
Fred Liu on X
#Southeast Asia Logistics Where there used to be dozens of players, now there's just two that matter - Shopee Express, and J&T (>60% combined market share). In a high fixed cost business, Scale > Order Density (across both Geography x Time) > Lowest Cost per Parcel = Competitive Moat. Parcel delivery cost has declined -45% over 4 years. h/t @momentumasia. $SE $1519.HK
Uber Stock Breakdown (Five Minute Money)
Uber’s $50 billion revenue and $4.5 billion operating profit reflect a turnaround from years of subsidy-heavy growth, with autonomous…
Coupang Expert Insight Interview (No Paywall)
Coupang’s former strategy VP discusses Taiwan expansion, 1P-versus-3P economics, and competitive risks as $32 billion of LTM revenue…
Operating Leverage as a Source of Market Inefficiency
Mastercard added $2.6 billion of revenue from 2005 to 2010 while expenses rose only $0.3 billion, illustrating how extreme operating…
Data Centers in the Permian Basin Part 3 - First Comes Power
Chevron’s proposed $6.5 billion, 2.5GW West Texas gas plant could support Permian AI data centers, with TPL, Oxy and WaterBridge land…
TransDigm (TDG) – The King of Aerospace Private Equity
TransDigm built a $72 billion aerospace-components consolidator through 90 acquisitions, delivering 23.1% annualized stock returns since…
QXO
QXO, Brad Jacobs’ building-materials distributor roll-up, targets rapid acquisitions and a $50 billion revenue run rate by 2032.
Revisiting Veeva #1
Veeva’s AI tools for pharmacovigilance case processing and trial-document management target more than $1 billion of potential revenue,…
Multiples Capital on X
1 oz of Silver > 1 barrel of Oil $SLV $SIL
Movie Theaters Risk and Opportunities; Netflix/WBD Deal; Is Disney Cheap?
Netflix’s Warner Bros. Discovery bid pushed Cinemark down 25% in two weeks, raising concerns that Warner Bros.
Laughing Water Capital on X
@UnHedgedChatter @InvestSpecial @Wexboy_Value $AS, owner of Arc'teryx & 9 other brands trades at more than 3x sales. $CLAR, which would fit perfectly into AS's portfolio trades at less than 0.5x sales and is exploring strategic alts. 🤷♂️
Laughing Water Capital on X
Interesting framing for $NN. $95 is pretty far above my upside case, but agree the $T / FirstNet arrangement is interesting context, despite some obvious differences. https://t.co/b3FsHVkivk
Carving Up the TPU
Google’s TPUs give it vertically integrated AI training and inference economics as Anthropic and Meta consider adoption, challenging…
Laughing Water Capital on X
@FishOnCapital IMHO best to view this in context of the pod w/ the banker from the 600 MHz. To paraphrase, all of the likely buyers wanted the 600, but AT&T won b/c they were able to move fastest. I suspect $VZ, $TMUS & others will be ready to move fast for $NN's 900. https://t.co/5gRpmej4Bk
Multiples Capital on X
Thinking more about this, the timing feels increasingly closer: The market concentration is extreme: Mag 7 + $AVGO sits at a combined market cap of $18 Trillion. Contrast that with the entire Mid/Small-Cap universe: S&P 400 (Mid): $3T $MDY S&P 600 (Small): $1.4T $IJR Russell 2000: $2.8T $IWM A 10% shift in allocation ($1.8T) from Big Tech could easily double the market cap of these mid/small-cap indexes. It's not a new insight, but with growing AI bubble nervousness in market participants and rising FED rate cut expectations extending into 2026, the potential for this capital shift is getting compelling. #GreatRotation #SmallCaps #MidCaps #MarketTiming
