Daily recap, Saturday, September 12

Saturday 12 September

Technology

𝕏 @MultiplesCap

Not an AI expert by any stretch, but wonder if US labs actually coordinate to "pace the frontier," it could be a stealth negative for Nvidia’s top-line growth rate. Here’s why: Flattening the Frontier Race: If scaling massive base models is intentionally delayed for alignment, the panic to hoard the newest, most expensive contiguous GPU clusters cools down. Shift to Post-Training & RL: Progress shifts to squeezing intelligence out of existing models via synthetic data and self-play. This relies on inference-class rollout fleets rather than cutting-edge pre-training mega-clusters. The Verification Layer: Evaluating, sandboxing, and grading all that synthetic RL data requires massive CPU compute .... benefitting $INTC Less brute-force pre-training = extended hardware refresh cycles and a normalized upgrade curve for $NVDA. Markets much smarter on this than I, will wait into see how the stock prices react to this next week!

Multiples Capital

NVDA $5.3T

𝕏 @partners_road

Here’s some color, via an options desk: Late Friday & Tuesday there was substantial FLEX call buying across mult AI cos ($CRWV, $AMD, $BE, $INTC, $SNDK, $SKHY, $DRAM. Trades represented $1.1B of delta/$5.8M vega. Total option premium was ~$315M. Buyer didn’t seem price sensitive. https://t.co/qCL8RnxHbY

RiverRoadPartners

AMD $842B

𝕏 @partners_road

Stan gave the example of 2001. $CSCO had aggressively grown its backlog every yr through the Internet 1.0 buildout & the Street expected the same in 2001, but instead $CSCO’s backlog plunged. The build was over, & with that equipment demand evaporated. That will happen again. https://t.co/7yB6vDgcl8

RiverRoadPartners

CSCO $441B

𝕏 @TidefallCapital

my mistake $ADBE has a Nov year end. so it's 12x nov 2027, 14x nov 2026.

Trevor Scott

ADBE $101B

Consumer Discretionary

𝕏 @Fierce__beast

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

Fierce_beast

CASY $23B

Financials

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@Dereje09921785 @SittingBear0921 says an $MMTLP victim. Such a lack of self-awareness.

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

𝕏 @John_Hempton

$MMTLP baggie thinks he deserves at least faux respect. I can't see why. He is an idiot and has devoted himself for over three years to advertising his stupidity. https://t.co/bzZBtrw5eP

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@MetaGuyMarduk I was not short $MMTLP. There is no issue here. But I know what you are going to say. Blue Sheets. I mean seriously - you could rub a few more brain cells together than that.

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@Chuck68651362 @KarmaCollects I neither need to put up or shut up. I don't owe the $MMTLP crowd anything - except thanks. Thanks for Darwin-Award worthy way in which you lost your money. So funny. Just so funny.

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

Energy

MetaMaterials and Nextbridge Hydrocarbons - a retail fleece for the ages

John Hempton's Newsletter MMAT delisted TRCH delisted

MMTLP's 2022 conversion into Next Bridge shares left retail holders caught in an opaque cancellation and settlement process, prompting congressional lobbying.

Healthcare

AstraZeneca: The $5 Billion Pipeline Hole Did Not Stay Open Long

Seeking Alpha AZN $248B

AstraZeneca's tozorakimab cut COPD attacks 29% to 34% in two Phase III trials, including 23% among low-eosinophil patients after Wainua's failure.

UNIVERSAL HEALTH SVCS INC (UHS): Long

Value Investors Club written 14 June UHS $10B

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

Communication Services

𝕏 @negligible_cap

“No one should be allowed to try and build better AI models than us” - Dario probably How come you never hear $META or $GOOG researchers crying wolf about the imminent dangers of AI? Or any open-sourced AI company? It’s seemingly always just Anthropic and OpenAI https://t.co/9UdFguBdPY

Negligible Capital

GOOGL $4T

𝕏 @negligible_cap

“No one should be allowed to try and build better AI models than us” - Dario probably How come you never hear $META or $GOOG researchers crying wolf about the imminent dangers of AI? Or any open-sourced AI company? It’s always just Anthropic and OpenAI, which don’t have nearly the cashflow to support their operations like Meta or Alphabet or Alibaba. Let AI defend against AI, not regulation

Negligible Capital

GOOGL $4T

Consumer Staples

Keurig Dr Pepper: Beverage Momentum And JDE Peet's Synergies Support A Buy

Seeking Alpha KDP $44B JDEP delisted

Keurig Dr Pepper’s U.S. beverage growth and JDE Peet’s acquisition support earnings growth as coffee-cost and tariff pressures ease.

𝕏 @TheBenSchmark

Sometimes a simple chart and pun captures the entire thesis. Just go with the $FLO and make bread. https://t.co/VyIYTaVRF1 https://t.co/lGn8FncexY

JabroniCoin.USD

FLO $1.3B

Industrials

𝕏 @finphysnerd

I feel $GEO is a pretty decent short here. It's not cheap, and I might be politically biased, but I think it's hard to see Republicans getting many wins in the midterms, which the market will likely extrapolate to 2028.

Myles

GEO $4.1B

Materials

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@Dereje09921785 I don't give a shit about your feelings. I care about mine. I like a belly laugh and $MMTLP has provided many. What your feelings are won't change anything and I do not give a shit.

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@MetaGuyMarduk I have never had a position in $MMTLP. You have though. And that is really funny.

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

𝕏 @John_Hempton

In the tradition of stiring hornets' nests I have written out my considered opinion on $MMTLP and the merits of the so-called $MMTLP community. https://t.co/lFSl5cN7p1

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

𝕏 @John_Hempton

@fafotimes I have no position and never did have a position in $MMTLP. I am not a loser. You are. So you threaten people with subpoenas for having an opinion. Both sad and funny. Like the Darwin awards.

John_Hempton

MMTLP delisted

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