David Orr on X
@Biohazard3737 I was leaning way more great bet for Citadel before today's $SOXX action. Opinion will change again fast from here... if $SOXX randomly nukes 10% in a few days though, yikes.
Topic
Everything our editor has picked under this tag, best first.
@Biohazard3737 I was leaning way more great bet for Citadel before today's $SOXX action. Opinion will change again fast from here... if $SOXX randomly nukes 10% in a few days though, yikes.
Citadel’s semiconductor bet depends on whether SOXX’s drop is technical or reflects weakening AI-chip fundamentals, with forced selling and redemptions shaping the near-term exit.
Apple trades at 35 times earnings despite Services deceleration and slowing China revenue, with harder comparisons ahead and near-doubled market capitalization raising ownership risk.
A few mins to go, but this has been by far Andy Jassy's best call ever as CEO. Well done sir. $AMZN
$AMZN op margin of 13.7% is its highest quarterly margin ever by a pretty wide margin. ROIC showing itself.
In July the bubble moved over into $AAPL where it was hanging out during the semis blood bath. $AAPL with a so/so print is constructive since that there the bubble has been parked.
$AMZN incremental AWS margins are 57% and operating cash flow grew +40% against a much harder comp. These types of numbers show that ROIC is there on the capex.
Microsoft’s results showed accelerating Azure growth, compute demand gains and operating cash flow growth above 30%, supporting the AI infrastructure trade despite lower reported capex from accounting changes.
$MSFT is showing us how to have your AI cake and eat it too. Zuck should take notes
Majority of EPS growth is in tech. Rest of the market EPS growth is tepid. $QQQ imploding, $RSP ripped. Sustainable?
Meta’s committed AI capex risks exceeding financeable demand as capital costs rise, forcing a pivot from excess capacity.
Internet analysts once focused on Google Search, Meta advertising, Netflix subscribers and AWS growth. AI-era capex has made those earnings calls more complex.
@FrostByte123456 Yes. $GOOGL needs to feed TWO capex intensive businesses: 1. Search (Gemeni) and 2. Cloud. $AMZN needs to only feed one, which is AWS.
@kermankohli GCP is baked into $GOOGL's price already. $META's cloud optionality is obviously not. You may prefer the known thing but its the unknown things that over much more asymmetry.
Alphabet faces a two-front AI capex burden, funding internal search competition and external cloud capacity without Meta’s excess-compute pivot.
@benbstwits Warren Buffett is 96 years old. He had every opportunity to buy $GOOGL over the last 20 years and didn't. The fact that he is showing up now is not the flex you think.
Alphabet beat its stated KPIs, but a 6% stock decline signals investor resistance to hyperscaler AI capex without quantified cash returns.
@LogicalThesis Market might sell $AMZN some here. But the distinction that should be made is that a massive amount of $GOOGL's capex is funding internal compute needs. The majority of AMZN's capex is for external.
Ok so $GOOGL says: -capex materially higher -Q3 cloud margins lower due to 3P capacity used at higher cost -search revs to slow on tougher comp -ambiguous word salad wrt to capex ROIC -ATM not used yet (maybe that's a mistake?) -No buyback in the Q
Shelly Group $SLYG H1 '26 results: ▫️Revenues +26.5% ▫️EBIT +45.6% ▫️EBIT margin of 26% (vs. 22.6%) ▫️Net result +51.4% ▫️OCF +260.6% ▫️FCF +354.3% ▫️Cash +133.1% ▫️DSO of 147 days (-21) ✅ Guidance confirmed https://t.co/do39CfwTEk
$LRCX is $RELL biggest customer and has a record up day today, on the back of strong earnings from Richardson. https://t.co/Jowt0qmxXX
Sundar on ROIC: "It's very early" "still supply constrained" "multi year view" That should help everyone understand $googl
SanDisk’s forward EPS estimates have diverged sharply from its share price as the investor remains short the semiconductor ETF SOXX.
Jorey is sizing up ahead of what mgmt has called a "hockey stick" 2H on the back of production orders scaling on at least two key PORs. $MOB https://t.co/5qF3GZFcFZ