PPTA · long Perpetua Resources CORP
Perpetua Resources (PPTA) is a development-stage gold mining project.
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PPTA · long Perpetua Resources (PPTA) is a development-stage gold mining project.
BBWI · long Bath & Body Works is the remaining Les Wexner retail business after The Limited’s former brands were separated or sold.
CBT · short Cabot’s short case targets a market pricing FY26 EPS of $6.00–$6.50 as trough earnings and assigning value to its battery-materials…
Floor & Decor cut 2026 guidance after 1Q same-store sales fell 3.7%, while shrinking new-store formats, cutting comparable-store SG&A and…
I pasted two screenshots from $PS's 424B4. If you look at fee paying AUM, it's $16 bn excl HHH which has a de minimis mgmt fee/carry. Add in $PSUS and you are at $21 bn of fee paying AUM. $PS discloses pro forma mgmt fees of $238 mm but that is net of $91 mm of non-cash amort related to the IPO. So I'm going to give them credit for $329 mm of mgmt fees. Assuming a 65% operating margin and a 20% tax rate, that gives me effective fee paying earnings of $171 mm. $PSH.LN has a 16% incentive fee and $PS is entitled to the performance fees on the first 5% (the team gets beyond that). On $15 bn, this is $15 bn * 5% * 16% = $120 mm or $96 mm after tax. Add up the mgmt fee and performance fee share, and I get $267 mm of expected earnings or $0.67/share. Implies $PS is trading at around ~50x EPS vs. $KKR at 17x, $ARES at 20x, $BX at 21x. Of course you can layer in some minor $HHH economics and it takes down the multiple a couple of turns. But you could also layer in a few years of sub 5% returns and that takes away the performance fee too. Certainly a 50x EPS valuation is pretty common for a fast growing higher ROIC biz. But it's by no means cheap. The question is, how will Ackman raise any money from here? $PSH.LN is at a discount to NAV, $PSUS is at a discount to NAV and $HHH is at a discount to NAV. One thing that will allow $PS to grow into its valuation is great results as that will 1) scale up the earnings (as it's based on % of AUM) and 2) facilitate new investors. Another way to contextualize the valuation is to simply look at fee paying AUM of $21 bn and compare that to the equity value of $13 bn. That is pretty unprecedented in the land of asset managers but reflects in part the permanent capital and the limited float (I think its just the 20mm shares given in the IPO). Could easily see a lot of price pressure once the 380mm non-IPO related investors are free to sell.
@JoesAutopen yes - it is on Carr. The same Carr who has surely seen the real world testing that $NN has done, and still submitted a draft NPRM. Is it your belief that the real world data was negative, and Carr chose to purposefully put his head on the chopping block?
Magnum Ice Cream (MICC), spun off from Unilever, trades at 13x NTM earnings and 8x EBITDA as its 3 million-freezer fleet supports a 2-3…
Portfolio end of April '26: Centrotec $CEV.HM Evolution $EVO Secunet Security Networks $YSN Leatt $LEAT Toyokumo $4058 Biorem $BRM.V (prev. undisclosed) -undisclosed- -undisclosed- Circle SpA $CIRC.MI Lindbergh $LDB.MI Shelly Group $SLYG ErreDue $RDUE -undisclosed- (New) (1/2) https://t.co/VTMaRmREFr
ZG · long Zillow is pitched as a long with a $72 target, implying 58% upside from trough earnings and a trough valuation multiple.
▫️$4058, $SLYG, $EVO, -undisclosed-, $LDB.MI, $CIRC.MI, $RDUE, $TRT.L
Meta’s Q1 2026 revenue rose 33% as ad impressions gained 19%, while AI-driven ranking and targeting lifted engagement and conversion;…
if "MNO’s will never give SpaceX and Amazon low band" is true, then invert the logic and consider what SpaceX, $AMZN, and the MNOs would pay to prevent someone else from getting $NN's low band. This how you get the extreme upside case. Multiple parties that NEED to own it. https://t.co/EnjF9Wpc86
QXO · long QXO, led by Brad Jacobs, is consolidating North America’s fragmented building-products distribution industry after rapidly building scale…
PSKY · short Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is a levered media conglomerate expected to merge with Warner Bros. Discovery in the third quarter.
PTON · long Peloton trades near $5.50 with a $2.3 billion equity value and $2.7 billion enterprise value after weak December-quarter earnings and its…
GXO · long GXO Logistics is undergoing transformation under new leadership in the growing contract-logistics business.
@DSacksCreative $NN The low band spectrum controlled by NN is quite valuable. $GSAT is a terrific comp. Sold for 11.6 billion. In many ways, our spectrum is extremely valuable and can carry more data and is more vital. Very desirable asset.
Meta grew first-quarter revenue 33% as AI lifted engagement and ad conversion, while data-center depreciation cut margins and personalized…
GPGI, formerly CompoSecure, is David Cote’s $4.2 billion industrial acquisition platform, managed by Resolute Holdings for 2.5% of adjusted…
Wow!!! $CBZ surprise, surprise... AI hasn't killed the #7 accounting firm in America. Shocking 😆 https://t.co/aMaOmLZK4B
SharkNinja, spun off from Hong Kong-listed JS Global Lifestyle and listed at $42.31 in July 2023, is pitched as a 40% upside compounder.
Seems like $PSUS and $PS going to trade worse than I expected. Looks like PSUS could open at a 20% discount to NAV and PS to trade below the $10 bn valuation from the latest 3rd party pre-IPO raise. https://t.co/Ix6uqF61LJ https://t.co/F5UNDNNVMb
@EricTheUmpire If you want exposure, buy $PSH.LN (or $PSHZF) which is trading at around 70% of NAV (implies $35/share for $PSUS). https://t.co/oSFLPLfnqr
This morning, Alta Fox published a press release and full thesis deck on $PBH CN (Premium Brands Holdings), a business we believe is significantly undervalued with 75%+ upside in our base case. The materials outline our investment thesis and highlight specific steps management can take to help close the discount to intrinsic value. Press release: https://t.co/gggqD1X7vZ Full deck: https://t.co/ZHKQmeWhmO