Getting Paid 10% for a Ringside Seat at the Braemar Circus with a potential 2x payout
Braemar’s BHR-PB preferred trades near $13 against a $25 liquidation preference, yielding 10% amid hotel sales, a $480 million Ashford…
Topic
special situations
Everything our editor has picked under this tag, best first.
AnaptysBio (ANAB)
AnaptysBio’s Jemperli royalty receipts rise after a Sagard financing obligation ends in 2027.
Weedmaps
WM Technology trades near its $57 million cash balance after a Nasdaq-to-OTCQX delisting, while cannabis Schedule III rescheduling could…
Forgive me Father, I have Sabled.
Sable Offshore restarted Santa Ynez oil flows under a Defense Production Act order, targeting 50,000 barrels daily and a path to 60,000…
NFE Bond Update
New Fortress Energy’s restructuring cancels its 12% 2029 notes for 94.3% of BrazilCo, $974 million of New NFE preferred and 25.8% of New…
Stryker CORP
Stryker (SYK) trades near a 52-week low after a late-Q1 cyberattack disrupted revenue and earnings, framing a long-term compounder…
Maha Capital
Maha Capital combines two assets valued at least 2x its pro forma market capitalization, with a catalyst intended to close the discount.
Product-Market Fit in 5G ORAN Radios... Equity Market Rerate to Come? ($AMPG)
Amplitech's bull case rests on $118 million in 5G Open RAN LOIs, 125% projected revenue growth and a 1x EV/sales valuation.
Hallador's "Beautiful, Clean Coal": Near Term Catalyst w/ 200% Upside ($HNRG)
Hallador Energy's Merom plant cleared a MISO review, setting up a potential data-center PPA that could transform the coal miner into a…
Comeback Season: Evolv Eyes Positive FCF, 40% ARR Growth, and Reputational Revival in '25 ($EVLV)
Evolv ($EVLV) targets positive free cash flow and 40% ARR growth in 2025 as delayed filings, an FTC resolution, and leadership changes seek…
Insureco w/ Potential Strat Alts Announcement Soon + 100% Upside on Buyout ($TIPT)
Tiptree ($TIPT) is positioned around a potential Fortegra sale announcement; Fortegra generates substantially all revenue.
Intriguing Patent Litigation Situation ($FNCH)
Finch Therapeutics faces a jury verdict on FMT patent claims against Ferring’s Rebyota; a win could bring damages and royalties, while a…
Inflecting Drone Company w/ Near-Term (+300% vs. -30%) Binary Event ($RCAT)
Red Cat’s Teal Drones is one of two remaining candidates for a $600 million to $1 billion-plus U.S.
The Announcement That Changes Everything
China Yuchai’s potential MGP IPO could separate its data-center and genset arm, with employee incentives tied to a listing and a proposed…
Monster in the Middle: Unpacking the High-Stakes Buyout Battle
Energy Monster’s $1.25-per-ADS management buyout faces Hillhouse Capital’s fully funded $1.77 competing offer, turning the Chinese…
Portfolio Updates
CYD was sold near $21 versus an $11 entry after exceeding a $19.50 target; proceeds moved to H22.SI, whose CYD stake implies $1.30 NAV and…
A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…
Purecycle and the good money after bad decision...
PureCycle’s largest shareholder, Sylebra Capital, keeps financing its delayed, over-budget plastic-recycling plant despite covenant…
Too Many Cooks Spoil The Pot
Baron’s BARAX and BGAFX hold SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion valuation, creating a potential NAV uplift if its IPO prices higher.
Go Stub Yourself
Vistance Networks’ Aurora stub trades at an implied 4.1x EBITDA after $10.5 billion and $1.846 billion asset sales, with DOCSIS 4.0 demand…
$PRKS: SeaWorld, an 8% cash yield, and a possible 80% short squeeze | Hawkins Entrekin
United Parks trades at 8x EBITDA with an 8%+ unlevered cash yield, aggressive buybacks and roughly 80% effective short interest, while…
Braemar Hotels & Resorts: Internalizing Management
Braemar Hotels & Resorts is internalizing its management.
Theravance Biopharma: Failed Phase 3 Trial, Strategic Review
Theravance Biopharma began a strategic review after a failed Phase 3 trial.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts: HST Four Seasons Sale, Updated Thoughts
Braemar Hotels & Resorts’ Four Seasons sale prompts updated views on HST.
