catechwilliams on X
Sponsor Bain (50% shareholder) will likely be looking to unload shares as we approach the lock-up expiration date later this summer. $KMTS could be a zero.
Topic
special situations
Everything our editor has picked under this tag, best first.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating decline: Networking -37% (largest category), Product sales -18%, zero margin/ low quality Professional services now 15% of sales. Cut FY2026 top and bottom-line guide by 7% w further cuts almost certain to come. Trading at 14x 2026 guidance vs peers at 6-8x.
catechwilliams on X
$ACA Levered roll-up (4x levered) hodgepodge of low-quality cap intensive commodity businesses w struggling end-markets (sub-scale aggregates, building products, ag). Negative organic growth w unrealistic guidance. Forced to sell an asset to avoid covenant breach. 30x P/E
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW RFG sale is delayed again (latest 10-Q stated will close end of July). This is the 3rd delay. Now unlikely to close at all. Will require a restatement of the last 2 quarters, revealing much lower earnings (likely negative EPS, negative FCF). https://t.co/lVsZZT37Cf
catechwilliams on X
Calavo Growers' promised sale of RFG missed another deadline after CEO Lee Cole said it would close within a month, then by May.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Numbers don’t add up. 50% sales $CSCO product (sales -13% MRQ, guided -11%). MRQ $PLUS sales +13% (reported yesterday). Earnings call question: “OEM Cisco have talked about bottlenecks, weak orders. You’ve been unscathed…how are you outperforming the market significantly?”
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
catechwilliams on X
$DTC Market awakening to strat alts noted yesterday. “We are currently undergoing a full strategic review of every key facet of our company...have engaged a leading strategic firm.” Multiple assets to sell. New CEO from $VSTO. 7x EPS, high SI. Large upside on any favorable news.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW It appears DOJ and SEC are investigating for Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violations in Mexico. Could result in fines, revocation of FDA license to distribute in US. Shocking no one is considering this existential risk. https://t.co/Icgbfgjn4a
catechwilliams on X
$CART Moved forward its lock-up expiration date to 2/16 (Thursday) from the original 3/19. >65% of the shares will be eligible for sale. COO leaving, just announced a restructuring w ambitious guidance. Almost certainly did so to support the stock in advance of a secondary.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Trainwreck coming--Delayed filing (again) due to issues w internal controls. Potential restatement? CEO has a history of playing games. Commodity business deteriorating due to competition. Desperately trying to sell-off assets.
Ian Bezek on X
@House_Stark12 Think again. Arguably the only thing $OPEN is good at is issuing new stock. https://t.co/oUX7I8I2kY
Ian Bezek on X
Embarrassing press release. $OPEN Revenues fell 44% year-over-year. And they are still budgeting $110 million for SBC in Q3 alone. Absolutely shameful behavior. https://t.co/7vZtlVVy2j
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Just delayed earnings release and 10K filing date 1 month, changed filing status. Note the ongoing dispute w Mexican authorities for tax underpayments. That liability is nearly the size of $CVGW mkt cap. The jig may be up.
catechwilliams on X
$DCGO NYC Controller revokes Mayor Adams' authority to grant emergency order contracts (backdoor, no-bid). The order specifically focuses on DCGO's lucrative "asylum seeker services." NYC = 50% of DCGO revenue. https://t.co/7NUJ0i28Ry
catechwilliams on X
$NAPA Another senior manager just left. Company doesn't have a CEO, CFO nor apparently any senior members on its finance team now. Doesn't seem optimal given they are integrating a very large acquisition. https://t.co/lfyfru4WUM
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Another strong result: sales grew 6%, $0.27 EPS (ex non-cash convert expense) brings LTM to nearly $1.40 or 8x EPS. Don't see a lot of growing, industry leaders w strong FCF profiles at that multiple. No banks cover it, that will change soon. CFO at 2 conferences this week.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Perhaps the most attractive long I’ve seen in years. Dominant \position in a category growing >20%. Major business overhaul taking hold after years of underperformance. Stock trades at 7x EPS/ 13% FCF yield due to low awareness of these structural improvements (see below)..
Tim Eriksen on X
Entravision’s investment case shifted from sequential hypergrowth and SOTP upside to year-over-year growth after management guided Q3 below Q2. The investor exited after lighter-than-expected Q2 growth.
marginofdanger on X
$BWEL has been the most aggressive in years on its share buybacks since the last reported financials (6/30/25). While not as significant as I would like, the increased pace of buyback is probably a good sign for FY26 results. https://t.co/tQmmswZS0P
Tim Eriksen on X
Taitron's deregistration cut shares from $2.50 to roughly $1.00, despite $1.50 per share each of net cash and real estate, a 14% yield and a dividend increase.
marginofdanger on X
FMBL adjourned votes to lower proposal thresholds to 60% after falling 2.5% to 3% short, with management expecting approval when the meeting resumes in late August.
