Too Many Cooks Spoil The Pot
Baron’s BARAX and BGAFX hold SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion valuation, creating a potential NAV uplift if its IPO prices higher.
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Broken Moats on X
Interesting the $AMZN Supply Chain Services announcement has been glossed over by competitor share price action after the initial announcement hit. $UPS has been up virtually everyday for the past 2 weeks + even though they alongside the LTL carriers like $SAIA $XPO are probably the most exposed to competitive pressures or price pressures. Trucking is being supported by heavy admin crackdowns (that will help foster inflation later this year and into next year) and AI demand in areas like flatbed. But LTL and parcel demand is lagging and has relied heavily on price in recent years to compensate for higher costs and volumes....AMZN entrance should pressure both sides for these companies especially domestic players, much less for global routes
KRYS · short Krystal Biotech INC
Krystal Biotech is a profitable commercial-stage biotech with an $8.7 billion enterprise value and one FDA-approved topical gene therapy,…
YOU · short Clear Secure INC
Clear Secure's Clear Plus subscription business is nearing maturity despite recent bookings strength, supporting a short thesis on YOU.
Fierce_beast on X
To me it's a situation where you just need one bad actor to go crazy with compute scale and it practically forces the hand of everyone else to do the same because they are scared if they don't they will lose the race. Or even better, they actually agree that you should go crazy with compute so they are doing it for rational reasons. Here this bad actor may not even be acting in bad faith and they might even be right. Look at OpenAI buying insane amounts of compute early on and many thinking they are insane and shorting stocks like $ORCL but suddenly over the last 2 months now hearing they are servicing their customers better than antrhopic and many people moving to openai.
DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X
What a quarter!!! $GME That $EBAY merge getting easier and easier.... https://t.co/y2N8B6Fj0J
mavix on X
Shelly Group $SLYG appoints Georgi Bonec as Chief Marketing Officer to further strengthen Shelly‘s global brand positioning, international go-to-market capabilities and consumer, retail and professional channel development. https://t.co/4LdogwzUod
COCO · short Vita Coco Company INC
Vita Coco, COCO, is pitched short after a 45% monthly rally, arguing investors are overextrapolating coconut water category growth.
SIRI · long Sirius Xm Holdings INC
SiriusXM, SIRI, combines a 32% EBITDA margin with 3.6x net leverage and a 16% free-cash-flow margin despite elevated capex.
PAA Research on X
Quick thoughts on the $GOOG raise: 1) Management is old enough to remember when this stock traded at much lower multiples for YEARS, good time to raise capital and it's not that much relative to the market cap. 2) The demands of data center build out/token cost are even more insatiable than we thought (see $HPE, $DELL, or the $NVDA overnight news) 3) Profitability/cash flow could be headed lower in a meaningful way at some point in the not too distant future for the search business. This is the most important take away IMO. Someone explain to me how you take the greatest business model ever created in Search/Adwords where you have 90% share and replace it with LLM's/AEO, while somehow maintaining the same profitability. The structural economics are WORSE and market share is materially worse. Search traffic is DOWN in many categories and that will only get worse from here as consumers engage with #openAI, #claude, #gemini at higher rates. Honestly, I don't know why this isn't the primary narrative around $GOOG currently. I'm sure there are people that will have different perspectives on this, but ask around to people that rely on search. Volumes are down in many areas already.
ToffCap on X
$ABVX https://t.co/PZxxt1GzS6
Mike on X
$HPE let's fucking go. https://t.co/OjNXeIX0yM
Mike on X
@Minnvestor $NVT you'd think would be up more today. Also w/ TPUs and Project Deschutes what w/ Anthropic S-1 and rev growth. Do you think just overlooked?
PAA Research on X
Not sure what to think about the action in the $SMH and $NVDA ecosystem names ripping higher as $GEV and $ENR giving back ALL of their gains since they reported 1Q26 results. Notable at the very least.
What I Read This Week
Weekly reading list covers Agnico Eagle, Cameco, Dollar Tree, Meta, Braze and Apollo across mining, retail, AI and insurance.
[scuttleslops] SPOT, UMG, TXN, SPGI, TRU, ADSK, MTCH, CSGP, DLTR
Spotify and Universal Music Group will offer licensed AI song covers and remixes as a Premium add-on, with artist opt-in and royalty…
EGO · long Eldorado Gold CORP
Eldorado Gold (EGO) is a long-life gold and copper miner with a rare growth profile across precious and base metals.
CNR · long Core Natural Resources INC
Core Natural Resources is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch…
NCNO · long Ncino INC
NCino is a commercial-lending system of record for banks and credit unions, trading at roughly 3x enterprise value to sales.
The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis
Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…
PAA Research on X
You wouldn't know it based on the way investors on this platform talk about homebuilders and the housing market in general but Berkshire Hathaway's deal for $TMHC is the THIRD announced takeout of a publicly traded homebuilder this year. Sentiment in the space has rarely been worse than it is now, but some longer term thinkers see the opportunity... $XHB $ITB $TPH $UHG
CNH · long Cnh Industrial NV
CNH Industrial, the No. 2 global agricultural-equipment OEM, is pitched long at about $10 per share.
AEM · long Agnico Eagle Mines LTD
GPK · long Graphic Packaging Holding CO
Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…
